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Ligue 1 · Matchday 33Saturday 22 May · 16:00 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Rennes5th place
RCL 54%X 24%REN 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lens take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lens 0.2, Rennes -0.4.
  • If Lens score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Rennes score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.3
Over 2.565%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lens win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.84X24%4.15221%4.66
Double chance
1X79%1.27X246%2.191276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.88BTTS yes64%1.57BTTS no36%2.76

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Rennes1-1 probability 9.9%

Form

Compare →
LensLWWWL
RennesLWLWL

Head to head

Lens – Rennes7 February 20263-1
Rennes – Lens28 September 20250-0
Lens – Rennes15 March 20251-0
Rennes – Lens21 September 20241-1
Rennes – Lens12 May 20241-1
Lens – Rennes20 August 20231-1