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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 33Saturday 22 May · 16:00 · Stade de l'Aube
Troyes16th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
ETG 9%X 16%PSG 75%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 367 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris Saint-Germain 3.0 points per game, Troyes 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 1.0, Troyes -0.4.
  • If Troyes score first, they win 30% of the time
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 90% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Over 2.563%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
19%10.70X16%6.41275%1.33
Double chance
1X25%4.01X291%1.101284%1.18
Goals
Over 2.563%1.60Under 2.537%2.68BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Troyes · Columns: Paris Saint-Germain0-2 probability 12.1%

Form

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Head to head

Troyes – Paris Saint-Germain7 May 20231-3
Paris Saint-Germain – Troyes29 October 20224-3
Paris Saint-Germain – Troyes8 May 20222-2
Troyes – Paris Saint-Germain7 August 20211-2