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Ligue 1 · Matchday 33Saturday 22 May · 16:00 · Allianz Riviera
Nice8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Monaco7th place
NIC 34%X 28%MON 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Monaco lead by 69 rating points.
  • Derby match.
  • If Nice score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Monaco score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.554%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Monaco win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.93X28%3.63238%2.61
Double chance
1X62%1.62X266%1.521272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.17BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.40

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nice · Columns: Monaco1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
NiceWWLWW
MonacoWDLDL

Head to head

Nice – Monaco8 February 20260-0
Monaco – Nice5 October 20252-2
Monaco – Nice29 March 20252-1
Nice – Monaco27 October 20242-1
Nice – Monaco11 February 20242-3
Monaco – Nice22 September 20230-1