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Ligue 1 · Matchday 33Saturday 22 May · 16:00 · Stade Jean-Bouin
Paris FC4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Marseille6th place
PFC 48%X 26%OM 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris FC 1.0, Marseille -0.4.
  • Paris FC take 2.5 points per game at home.
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.3
Over 2.559%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Paris FC win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.06X26%3.87226%3.89
Double chance
1X74%1.35X252%1.941274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.42BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris FC · Columns: Marseille1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Marseille – Paris FC6 September 20262-3
Paris FC – Marseille31 January 20262-2
Marseille – Paris FC23 August 20255-2