TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 33Saturday 22 May · 16:00 · Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Auxerre14th place
TFC 57%X 25%AUX 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.5, Auxerre -0.5.
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.552%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Toulouse win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.76X25%4.08219%5.35
Double chance
1X81%1.23X243%2.311275%1.32
Goals
Over 2.552%1.94Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes52%1.94BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Toulouse · Columns: Auxerre1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →
AuxerreWLWDL

Head to head

Toulouse – Auxerre1 February 20260-0
Auxerre – Toulouse21 September 20251-0
Auxerre – Toulouse9 February 20252-2
Toulouse – Auxerre1 December 20242-0
Toulouse – Auxerre27 May 20231-1
Auxerre – Toulouse11 January 20230-5