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Picks
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Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Saturday 21 November · 19:45 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Toulouse12th place
RCL 53%X 26%TFC 22%

What does the market say?

LensDrawToulouseRinvalo53%26%22%
Market49%25%26%

✓ Agree · both back Lens

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lens lead by 93 rating points.
  • Lens take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • The market also backs the home side (49%).
  • If Lens score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.553%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lens win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.90X26%3.87222%4.64
Double chance
1X78%1.27X247%2.111274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.553%1.90Under 2.547%2.11BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Toulouse1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →
LensLWWWL

Head to head

Lens – Toulouse17 April 20263-2
Toulouse – Lens2 January 20260-3
Toulouse – Lens10 May 20251-1
Lens – Toulouse5 January 20250-1
Toulouse – Lens28 January 20240-2
Lens – Toulouse24 September 20232-1