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Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Saturday 21 November · 19:45 · Stade Louis II
Monaco7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Auxerre13th place
MON 61%X 23%AUX 16%

What does the market say?

MonacoDrawAuxerreRinvalo61%23%16%
Market67%20%13%

✓ Agree · both back Monaco

Prediction

Key factors
  • Monaco lead by 111 rating points.
  • Monaco take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • The market also backs the home side (67%).
  • If Monaco score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.559%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Monaco win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.64X23%4.34216%6.21
Double chance
1X84%1.19X239%2.551277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.559%1.68Market 66%Under 2.541%2.46Market 34%BTTS yes56%1.78Market 56%BTTS no44%2.27Market 44%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monaco · Columns: Auxerre1-1 probability 10.3%

Form

Compare →
MonacoWDLDL
AuxerreWLWDL

Head to head

Monaco – Auxerre19 April 20262-2
Auxerre – Monaco13 September 20251-2
Monaco – Auxerre1 February 20254-2
Auxerre – Monaco14 September 20240-3
Monaco – Auxerre1 February 20233-2
Auxerre – Monaco28 December 20222-3