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Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Saturday 21 November · 16:15 · Allianz Riviera
Nice8th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
NIC 14%X 20%PSG 66%

What does the market say?

NiceDrawParis Saint-GermainRinvalo14%20%66%
Market15%19%66%

✓ Agree · both back Paris Saint-Germain

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 217 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 1.0, Nice -0.4.
  • Paris Saint-Germain take 2.3 points per game away.
  • The market also backs the away side (66%).
  • If Nice score first, they win 39% of the time
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 85% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals0.9 – 2.2
Over 2.560%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
114%7.06X20%5.12266%1.51
Double chance
1X34%2.97X286%1.171280%1.24
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Market 70%Under 2.540%2.51Market 30%BTTS yes54%1.86Market 61%BTTS no46%2.16Market 39%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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5
Rows: Nice · Columns: Paris Saint-Germain0-2 probability 10.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Nice – Paris Saint-Germain21 March 20260-4
Paris Saint-Germain – Nice1 November 20251-0
Paris Saint-Germain – Nice25 April 20251-3
Nice – Paris Saint-Germain6 October 20241-1
Nice – Paris Saint-Germain15 May 20241-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Nice15 September 20232-3