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Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Sunday 22 November · 16:15 · Stade du Moustoir
Lorient10th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Rennes5th place
LOR 41%X 27%REN 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lorient 0.1, Rennes -0.4.
  • If Lorient score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Rennes score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.3
Over 2.556%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lorient win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.42X27%3.67231%3.18
Double chance
1X69%1.46X259%1.701273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.556%1.80Under 2.544%2.25BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.46

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lorient · Columns: Rennes1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →
LorientDLWWD
RennesLWLWL

Head to head

Rennes – Lorient24 January 20260-2
Lorient – Rennes24 August 20254-0
Rennes – Lorient3 March 20241-2
Lorient – Rennes22 October 20232-1
Lorient – Rennes27 January 20232-1
Rennes – Lorient7 August 20220-1