TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Saturday 21 November · 19:45 · Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Lyon3rd place
LIL 41%X 29%OL 29%

What does the market say?

LilleDrawLyonRinvalo41%29%29%
Market40%27%34%

✓ Agree · both back Lille

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (40%).
  • If Lille score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.0
Over 2.541%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.42X29%3.42229%3.39
Double chance
1X71%1.42X259%1.701271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.541%2.42Market 55%Under 2.559%1.71Market 45%BTTS yes48%2.09Market 59%BTTS no52%1.92Market 41%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lille · Columns: Lyon1-1 probability 14.0%

Form

Compare →
LilleLWDDW
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Lyon – Lille1 February 20261-0
Lille – Lyon28 September 20250-1
Lyon – Lille5 April 20252-1
Lille – Lyon1 November 20241-1
Lille – Lyon6 May 20243-4
Lyon – Lille26 November 20230-2