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Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Sunday 22 November · 19:45 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Le Mans17th place
OM 70%X 18%LMS 11%

What does the market say?

MarseilleDrawLe MansRinvalo70%18%11%
Market68%20%12%

✓ Agree · both back Marseille

Prediction

Key factors
  • Marseille lead by 176 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Marseille 2.4 points per game, Le Mans 0.8.
  • The market also backs the home side (68%).
  • If Marseille score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Le Mans score first, they win 33% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.6 – 1.0
Over 2.571%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.43X18%5.42211%8.75
Double chance
1X89%1.13X230%3.351282%1.23
Goals
Over 2.571%1.41Market 68%Under 2.529%3.46Market 32%BTTS yes61%1.65Market 58%BTTS no39%2.54Market 42%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
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Rows: Marseille · Columns: Le Mans2-1 probability 9.2%

Form

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