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Ligue 1 · Matchday 29Saturday 24 April · 16:00 · Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Monaco7th place
LIL 47%X 28%MON 25%

Prediction

  • If Lille score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Monaco score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.546%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.12X28%3.60225%4.00
Double chance
1X75%1.33X253%1.901272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.546%2.17Under 2.554%1.86BTTS yes51%1.98BTTS no49%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lille · Columns: Monaco1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →
LilleLWDDW
MonacoWDLDL

Head to head

Monaco – Lille25 October 20261-1
Monaco – Lille10 May 20260-1
Lille – Monaco24 August 20251-0
Lille – Monaco22 February 20252-1
Monaco – Lille18 October 20240-0
Monaco – Lille24 April 20241-0