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Ligue 1 · Matchday 29Saturday 24 April · 16:00 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Brest10th place
OL 52%X 26%BRE 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 99 rating points.
  • Lyon take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Lyon score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Brest score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Over 2.554%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.91X26%3.84221%4.66
Double chance
1X79%1.27X248%2.101274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.19BTTS yes56%1.80BTTS no44%2.25

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lyon · Columns: Brest1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW
BrestLWDLW

Head to head

Lyon – Brest18 January 20262-1
Brest – Lyon2 November 20250-0
Lyon – Brest2 March 20252-1
Brest – Lyon11 January 20252-1
Lyon – Brest14 April 20244-3
Brest – Lyon23 September 20231-0