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Ligue 1 · Matchday 29Saturday 24 April · 16:00 · Stade Jean-Bouin
Paris FC4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Lens9th place
PFC 42%X 28%RCL 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris FC take 2.5 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris FC 1.0, Lens 0.2.
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Lens score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.3
Over 2.552%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Paris FC win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.41X28%3.61231%3.26
Double chance
1X69%1.44X258%1.711272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.28

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris FC · Columns: Lens1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
LensLWWWL

Head to head

Lens – Paris FC24 October 20262-1
Paris FC – Lens14 February 20260-5
Lens – Paris FC19 October 20252-1