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Ligue 1 · Matchday 29Saturday 24 April · 16:00 · Stade de l'Aube
Troyes16th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Toulouse12th place
ETG 23%X 26%TFC 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Toulouse lead by 156 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.5, Troyes -0.4.
  • Last 5 games: Toulouse 1.6 points per game, Troyes 0.8.
  • If Troyes score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.6
Over 2.547%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Toulouse win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.28X26%3.82250%1.98
Double chance
1X50%2.02X277%1.311274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Troyes · Columns: Toulouse1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
TroyesLLLDW

Head to head

Toulouse – Troyes25 October 20260-0
Toulouse – Troyes1 February 20234-1
Troyes – Toulouse14 August 20220-3