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Ligue 1 · Matchday 29Saturday 24 April · 16:00 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Auxerre13th place
OM 62%X 22%AUX 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Marseille lead by 125 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Marseille 2.4 points per game, Auxerre 1.4.
  • If Marseille score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.1
Over 2.564%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.61X22%4.55216%6.33
Double chance
1X84%1.19X238%2.651278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.564%1.56Under 2.536%2.80BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.47

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marseille · Columns: Auxerre2-1 probability 9.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Marseille – Auxerre13 March 20261-0
Auxerre – Marseille1 November 20250-1
Auxerre – Marseille22 February 20253-0
Marseille – Auxerre8 November 20241-3
Marseille – Auxerre30 April 20232-1
Auxerre – Marseille3 September 20220-2