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Championship · Matchday 28Tuesday 26 January · 19:45 · LNER Stadium
Lincoln City16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Watford21st place
LIN 47%X 27%WAT 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lincoln City -0.1, Watford -0.9.
  • If Lincoln City score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.1
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lincoln City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.14X27%3.67226%3.85
Double chance
1X74%1.35X253%1.881273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.548%2.06Under 2.552%1.94BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lincoln City · Columns: Watford1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

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