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Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 28Tuesday 26 January · 19:45 · Carrow Road
Norwich City15th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Derby County23rd place
NOR 59%X 24%DER 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Norwich City lead by 99 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Norwich City -0.1, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Norwich City score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.556%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Norwich City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.69X24%4.19217%5.90
Double chance
1X83%1.20X241%2.451276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Norwich City · Columns: Derby County1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Norwich City – Derby County21 April 20262-1
Derby County – Norwich City21 October 20251-0
Norwich City – Derby County8 February 20251-1
Derby County – Norwich City28 September 20242-3