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Championship · Matchday 28Wednesday 27 January · 19:45 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Wrexham18th place
MID 65%X 21%WRE 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 135 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Wrexham 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Wrexham -0.3.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Wrexham score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.9
Over 2.559%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.53X21%4.66213%7.65
Double chance
1X87%1.15X235%2.901279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.44BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Wrexham2-0 probability 11.0%

Form

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Head to head

Wrexham – Middlesbrough2 May 20262-2
Middlesbrough – Wrexham25 October 20251-1