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Championship · Matchday 28Tuesday 26 January · 19:45 · The Den
Millwall12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Birmingham City6th place
MIL 42%X 28%BIR 29%

Prediction

  • If Millwall score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Millwall win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.35X28%3.56229%3.40
Double chance
1X71%1.42X258%1.741272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.546%2.18Under 2.554%1.85BTTS yes52%1.94BTTS no48%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Millwall · Columns: Birmingham City1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Millwall – Birmingham City25 February 20263-0
Birmingham City – Millwall4 November 20254-0
Millwall – Birmingham City9 March 20241-0
Birmingham City – Millwall2 September 20231-1
Millwall – Birmingham City18 April 20230-1
Birmingham City – Millwall2 November 20220-0