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Ligue 1 · Matchday 13Saturday 5 December · 16:00 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Nice8th place
OM 58%X 23%NIC 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Marseille lead by 82 rating points.
  • If Marseille score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Nice score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.1
Over 2.562%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Marseille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.71X23%4.30218%5.44
Double chance
1X82%1.22X242%2.401277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.61BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.46

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marseille · Columns: Nice1-1 probability 10.2%

Form

Compare →
NiceWWLWW

Head to head

Marseille – Nice26 April 20261-1
Nice – Marseille21 November 20251-5
Nice – Marseille26 January 20252-0
Marseille – Nice14 September 20242-0
Marseille – Nice24 April 20242-2
Nice – Marseille21 October 20231-0