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Ligue 1 · Matchday 13Saturday 5 December · 16:00 · Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
TFC 20%X 23%PSG 56%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 211 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris Saint-Germain 3.0 points per game, Toulouse 1.6.
  • Paris Saint-Germain take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Over 2.557%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Paris Saint-Germain win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%4.91X23%4.31256%1.77
Double chance
1X44%2.30X280%1.261277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Toulouse · Columns: Paris Saint-Germain1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Paris Saint-Germain – Toulouse3 April 20263-1
Toulouse – Paris Saint-Germain30 August 20253-6
Toulouse – Paris Saint-Germain15 February 20250-1
Paris Saint-Germain – Toulouse22 November 20243-0
Paris Saint-Germain – Toulouse12 May 20241-3
Toulouse – Paris Saint-Germain19 August 20231-1