TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 13Saturday 5 December · 16:00 · Stade de l'Aube
Troyes16th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Lyon3rd place
ETG 19%X 24%OL 57%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 253 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lyon 1.8 points per game, Troyes 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Troyes -0.4.
  • If Troyes score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.8
Over 2.551%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.31X24%4.21257%1.74
Double chance
1X43%2.35X281%1.231276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.551%1.96Under 2.549%2.04BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Troyes · Columns: Lyon1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →
TroyesLLLDW
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Troyes – Lyon4 February 20231-3
Lyon – Troyes19 August 20224-1
Troyes – Lyon16 January 20220-1
Lyon – Troyes22 September 20213-1