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Serie A · Matchday 34Sunday 2 May · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Lazio1st place
MIL 40%X 28%LAZ 32%

Prediction

  • If Milan score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Lazio score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.50X28%3.53232%3.15
Double chance
1X68%1.46X260%1.671272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.548%2.09Under 2.552%1.92BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Lazio1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW
LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Lazio – Milan12 September 20262-2
Lazio – Milan15 March 20261-0
Milan – Lazio29 November 20251-0
Milan – Lazio2 March 20251-2
Lazio – Milan31 August 20242-2
Lazio – Milan1 March 20240-1