TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 34Sunday 2 May · 17:30 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Venezia20th place
MON 48%X 27%VEN 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Monza 0.1, Venezia -0.6.
  • If Monza score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Venezia score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.552%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Monza win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.09X27%3.77226%3.89
Double chance
1X74%1.35X252%1.921273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.552%1.94Under 2.548%2.06BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Venezia1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL
VeneziaLWLLL

Head to head

Venezia – Monza12 April 20251-0
Monza – Venezia27 October 20242-2