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Serie A · Matchday 34Sunday 2 May · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Napoli8th place
ROM 48%X 27%NAP 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 100 rating points.
  • Roma take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • Last 5 games: Roma 2.2 points per game, Napoli 1.4.
  • If Roma score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.549%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.09X27%3.68225%4.00
Double chance
1X75%1.33X252%1.921273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Napoli1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Napoli – Roma24 October 20263-3
Napoli – Roma15 February 20262-2
Roma – Napoli30 November 20250-1
Roma – Napoli2 February 20251-1
Napoli – Roma24 November 20241-0
Napoli – Roma28 April 20242-2