TR
Picks
Mon 19:45ATA1-0PAR59%Mon 19:45LOR1-0BRE44%Mon 20:00DEP1-0OSA43%Mon 20:00NEW1-0EVE42%Mon 20:15BEN2-0ALV77%Mon 20:15GIL1-0VSC44%Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%
Serie A · Matchday 9Wednesday 28 October · 19:45 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Full time1-4Prediction correct
Napoli8th place
MON 20%X 24%NAP 57%

What does the market say?

MonzaDrawNapoliRinvalo20%24%57%
Market22%24%54%

✓ Agree · both back Napoli

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 257 rating points.
  • Napoli take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Monza score first, they win 47% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.9
Over 2.556%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Napoli win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%5.11X24%4.22257%1.76
Double chance
1X43%2.31X280%1.241276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.28BTTS yes56%1.80BTTS no44%2.25

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Napoli1-4 probability 3.0% · final score

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Monza – Napoli28 October 20261-4
Monza – Napoli19 April 20250-1
Napoli – Monza29 September 20242-0
Monza – Napoli7 April 20242-4
Napoli – Monza29 December 20230-0
Monza – Napoli14 May 20232-0