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Serie A · Matchday 9Thursday 29 October · 17:30 · Stadio Benito Stirpe
Frosinone6th place
Full time5-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Lecce14th place
FRO 49%X 27%LEC 23%

What does the market say?

FrosinoneDrawLecceRinvalo49%27%23%
Market56%23%21%

✓ Agree · both back Frosinone

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Frosinone 0.1, Lecce -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Frosinone 2.0 points per game, Lecce 1.2.
  • If Frosinone score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Lecce score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.9
Over 2.544%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Frosinone win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.02X27%3.69223%4.26
Double chance
1X77%1.31X251%1.981273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.544%2.27Under 2.556%1.79BTTS yes48%2.07BTTS no52%1.93

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Frosinone · Columns: Lecce5-1 probability 0.5% · final score

Form

Compare →
LecceLWLLL

Head to head

Frosinone – Lecce29 October 20265-1
Frosinone – Lecce3 March 20241-1
Lecce – Frosinone16 December 20232-1