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Serie A · Matchday 9Thursday 29 October · 19:45 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina17th place
Full time2-2Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✕ Missed
Atalanta13th place
FIO 35%X 28%ATA 36%

What does the market say?

FiorentinaDrawAtalantaRinvalo35%28%36%
Market43%26%31%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Atalanta 36%, market Fiorentina 43%

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 76 rating points.
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.3
Over 2.548%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Atalanta win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.82X28%3.54236%2.76
Double chance
1X64%1.57X265%1.551272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.548%2.09Under 2.552%1.92BTTS yes54%1.87BTTS no46%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fiorentina · Columns: Atalanta2-2 probability 5.3% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Fiorentina – Atalanta29 October 20262-2
Fiorentina – Atalanta22 May 20261-1
Atalanta – Fiorentina30 November 20252-0
Fiorentina – Atalanta30 March 20251-0
Atalanta – Fiorentina15 September 20243-2
Atalanta – Fiorentina2 June 20242-3