TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 9Tuesday 27 October · 19:45 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma3rd place
Full time4-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Cagliari12th place
ROM 68%X 21%CAG 11%

What does the market say?

RomaDrawCagliariRinvalo68%21%11%
Market72%18%10%

✓ Agree · both back Roma

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Roma lead by 172 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 1.4, Cagliari -0.3.
  • Roma take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Roma score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.7
Over 2.549%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.48X21%4.81211%8.72
Double chance
1X89%1.13X232%3.101279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.549%2.06Under 2.551%1.94BTTS yes42%2.37BTTS no58%1.73

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Cagliari4-2 probability 1.0% · final score

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Roma – Cagliari27 October 20264-2
Roma – Cagliari9 February 20262-0
Cagliari – Roma7 December 20251-0
Roma – Cagliari16 March 20251-0
Cagliari – Roma18 August 20240-0
Roma – Cagliari5 February 20244-0