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Serie A · Matchday 9Wednesday 28 October · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan5th place
Full time2-4Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Bologna9th place
MIL 48%X 29%BOL 23%

What does the market say?

MilanDrawBolognaRinvalo48%29%23%
Market58%24%18%

✓ Agree · both back Milan

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Milan lead by 110 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.2 points per game, Bologna 0.4.
  • If Milan score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Bologna score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.9
Over 2.544%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.07X29%3.51223%4.33
Double chance
1X77%1.30X252%1.941271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.544%2.29Under 2.556%1.77BTTS yes48%2.08BTTS no52%1.92

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Bologna2-4 probability 0.3% · final score

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW
BolognaWLWWW

Head to head

Milan – Bologna28 October 20262-4
Bologna – Milan3 February 20260-3
Milan – Bologna14 September 20251-0
Milan – Bologna9 May 20253-1
Bologna – Milan27 February 20252-1
Milan – Bologna27 January 20242-2