TR
Picks
Mon 19:45ATA1-0PAR59%Mon 19:45LOR1-0BRE44%Mon 20:00DEP1-0OSA43%Mon 20:00NEW1-0EVE42%Mon 20:15BEN2-0ALV77%Mon 20:15GIL1-0VSC44%Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%
Serie A · Matchday 11Saturday 7 November · 17:00 · Stadio Ennio Tardini
Parma18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Bologna9th place
PAR 22%X 28%BOL 50%

What's at stake

ParmaRelegation45%56%62%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bologna lead by 137 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Bologna 2.4 points per game, Parma 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bologna 0.1, Parma -0.7.
  • If Parma score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Bologna score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.4
Over 2.540%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.51X28%3.63250%1.99
Double chance
1X50%2.01X278%1.291272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.540%2.50Under 2.560%1.67BTTS yes45%2.24BTTS no55%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Parma · Columns: Bologna0-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →
ParmaWLLLD
BolognaWLWWW

Head to head

Bologna – Parma8 February 20260-1
Parma – Bologna2 November 20251-3
Parma – Bologna22 February 20252-0
Bologna – Parma6 October 20240-0