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Serie A · Matchday 11Sunday 8 November · 14:00 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Atalanta13th place
MON 29%X 24%ATA 47%

What's at stake

MonzaRelegation33%47%50%

What does the market say?

MonzaDrawAtalantaRinvalo29%24%47%
Market28%27%45%

✓ Agree · both back Atalanta

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 192 rating points.
  • The market also backs the away side (45%).
  • If Monza score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.9
Over 2.567%
Both teams score67%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Atalanta win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.44X24%4.12247%2.15
Double chance
1X53%1.87X271%1.411276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.567%1.50Market 60%Under 2.533%3.01Market 40%BTTS yes67%1.49Market 63%BTTS no33%3.05Market 38%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Atalanta1-1 probability 10.0%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL

Head to head

Monza – Atalanta4 May 20250-4
Atalanta – Monza30 October 20242-0
Monza – Atalanta21 April 20241-2
Atalanta – Monza2 September 20233-0
Atalanta – Monza4 June 20235-2
Monza – Atalanta5 September 20220-2