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Serie A · Matchday 11Sunday 8 November · 14:00 · Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Genoa11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Milan5th place
GEN 24%X 27%MIL 49%

What's at stake

MilanTop 434%25%22%

What does the market say?

GenoaDrawMilanRinvalo24%27%49%
Market21%26%53%

✓ Agree · both back Milan

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 144 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Genoa -0.4.
  • The market also backs the away side (53%).
  • If Genoa score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.5
Over 2.546%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.16X27%3.72249%2.04
Double chance
1X51%1.97X276%1.321273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.546%2.16Market 45%Under 2.554%1.87Market 55%BTTS yes50%1.99Market 48%BTTS no50%2.01Market 52%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Genoa · Columns: Milan1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →
GenoaWLWWW
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Genoa – Milan17 May 20261-2
Milan – Genoa8 January 20261-1
Genoa – Milan5 May 20251-2
Milan – Genoa15 December 20240-0
Milan – Genoa5 May 20243-3
Genoa – Milan7 October 20230-1