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Serie A · Matchday 11Saturday 7 November · 19:45 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Sassuolo15th place
ROM 72%X 18%SAS 10%

What's at stake

RomaTop 490%85%80%
SassuoloRelegation4%8%10%

What does the market say?

RomaDrawSassuoloRinvalo72%18%10%
Market72%18%10%

✓ Agree · both back Roma

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 254 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Roma 2.2 points per game, Sassuolo 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 0.9, Sassuolo -0.3.
  • The market also backs the home side (72%).
  • If Roma score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Sassuolo score first, they win 32% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.8
Over 2.565%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
172%1.39X18%5.52210%10.33
Double chance
1X90%1.11X228%3.601282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.565%1.55Market 70%Under 2.536%2.82Market 30%BTTS yes53%1.89Market 58%BTTS no47%2.12Market 42%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Sassuolo2-0 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Roma – Sassuolo10 January 20262-0
Sassuolo – Roma26 October 20250-1
Roma – Sassuolo17 March 20241-0
Sassuolo – Roma3 December 20231-2
Roma – Sassuolo12 March 20233-4
Sassuolo – Roma9 November 20221-1