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Serie A · Matchday 11Saturday 7 November · 14:00 · Unipol Domus
Cagliari12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Frosinone6th place
CAG 39%X 25%FRO 36%

What's at stake

CagliariRelegation2%4%6%

What does the market say?

CagliariDrawFrosinoneRinvalo39%25%36%
Market35%27%39%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Cagliari 39%, market Frosinone 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market differs: the away side 39%.
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Frosinone score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.6
Over 2.563%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Cagliari win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.58X25%3.99236%2.77
Double chance
1X64%1.57X261%1.631275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Market 60%Under 2.537%2.72Market 40%BTTS yes65%1.53Market 65%BTTS no35%2.89Market 35%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cagliari · Columns: Frosinone1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Frosinone – Cagliari21 January 20243-1
Cagliari – Frosinone29 October 20234-3