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Serie A · Matchday 11Sunday 8 November · 19:45 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Juventus7th place
FIO 19%X 25%JUV 55%

What's at stake

FiorentinaRelegation8%12%16%
JuventusTop 433%25%19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Juventus lead by 138 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Juventus 1.4 points per game, Fiorentina 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Juventus 0.8, Fiorentina -0.1.
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 50% of the time
  • If Juventus score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.7
Over 2.547%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Juventus win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.18X25%3.97255%1.80
Double chance
1X45%2.25X281%1.241275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.547%2.13Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes48%2.06BTTS no52%1.94

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fiorentina · Columns: Juventus1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

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Head to head

Juventus – Fiorentina17 May 20260-2
Fiorentina – Juventus22 November 20251-1
Fiorentina – Juventus16 March 20253-0
Juventus – Fiorentina29 December 20242-2
Juventus – Fiorentina7 April 20241-0
Fiorentina – Juventus5 November 20230-1