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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 11Sunday 8 November · 11:30 · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Lazio1st place
NAP 43%X 28%LAZ 28%

What's at stake

NapoliTop 419%11%8%
LazioTop 479%69%63%

What does the market say?

NapoliDrawLazioRinvalo43%28%28%
Market46%26%28%

✓ Agree · both back Napoli

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (46%).
  • If Napoli score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Lazio score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.545%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Napoli win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.31X28%3.53228%3.52
Double chance
1X72%1.40X257%1.761272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.545%2.21Market 55%Under 2.555%1.83Market 45%BTTS yes51%1.97Market 58%BTTS no49%2.03Market 42%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Napoli · Columns: Lazio1-1 probability 13.6%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL
LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Napoli – Lazio18 April 20260-2
Lazio – Napoli4 January 20260-2
Lazio – Napoli15 February 20252-2
Napoli – Lazio8 December 20240-1
Lazio – Napoli28 January 20240-0
Napoli – Lazio2 September 20231-2