TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 10Wednesday 14 October · 19:45 · MATRADE Loftus Road
QPR9th place
Full time4-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Derby County23rd place
QPR 51%X 27%DER 22%

What does the market say?

QPRDrawDerby CountyRinvalo51%27%22%
Market55%25%21%

✓ Agree · both back QPR

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: QPR 0.6, Derby County -1.0.
  • If QPR score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.548%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a QPR win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.95X27%3.75222%4.53
Double chance
1X78%1.28X249%2.051273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: QPR · Columns: Derby County4-1 probability 2.1% · final score

Form

Compare →
QPRDWLWL

Head to head

QPR – Derby County14 October 20264-1
QPR – Derby County25 April 20262-3
Derby County – QPR25 October 20251-0
QPR – Derby County14 February 20254-0
Derby County – QPR5 October 20242-0
QPR – Derby County18 April 20221-0