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Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 10Monday 2 November · 17:30 · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Sassuolo15th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Fiorentina17th place
SAS 40%X 28%FIO 33%

What's at stake

SassuoloRelegation6%10%12%
FiorentinaRelegation9%14%18%

What does the market say?

SassuoloDrawFiorentinaRinvalo40%28%33%
Market34%26%41%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Sassuolo 40%, market Fiorentina 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market differs: the away side 41%.
  • If Sassuolo score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.4
Over 2.555%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Sassuolo win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.53X28%3.62233%3.04
Double chance
1X67%1.49X260%1.651272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Under 2.545%2.20BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.42

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sassuolo · Columns: Fiorentina1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

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Head to head

Fiorentina – Sassuolo26 April 20260-0
Sassuolo – Fiorentina6 December 20253-1
Fiorentina – Sassuolo28 April 20245-1
Sassuolo – Fiorentina6 January 20241-0
Sassuolo – Fiorentina2 June 20231-3
Fiorentina – Sassuolo7 January 20232-1