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Championship · Matchday 20Wednesday 9 December · 20:00 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Burnley22nd place
SOU 63%X 22%BUR 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 120 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Burnley 1.0.
  • Southampton take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.560%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.59X22%4.51215%6.66
Double chance
1X85%1.18X237%2.691278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.560%1.68Under 2.540%2.47BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: Burnley2-0 probability 10.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Burnley – Southampton21 April 20222-0
Southampton – Burnley23 October 20212-2