TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 25Friday 1 January · 15:00 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Cardiff City17th place
SOU 69%X 19%CAR 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 229 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Cardiff City 1.4.
  • Southampton take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 35% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.9
Over 2.565%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
169%1.45X19%5.18212%8.64
Double chance
1X88%1.13X231%3.241281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.86BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.27

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: Cardiff City2-0 probability 10.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Cardiff City – Southampton20 April 20242-1
Southampton – Cardiff City2 December 20232-0