TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 25Friday 1 January · 15:00 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
QPR9th place
WAT 27%X 27%QPR 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • QPR lead by 125 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: QPR 0.5, Watford -0.9.
  • If Watford score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If QPR score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.5
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a QPR win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.68X27%3.65245%2.20
Double chance
1X55%1.83X273%1.371273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes54%1.87BTTS no46%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: QPR1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →
WatfordLLWLL
QPRDWLWL

Head to head

QPR – Watford3 April 20262-1
Watford – QPR16 August 20252-1
QPR – Watford1 January 20253-1
Watford – QPR30 November 20240-0
QPR – Watford14 January 20241-2
Watford – QPR5 August 20234-0