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Championship · Matchday 9Sunday 11 October · 12:00 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Full time1-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Portsmouth11th place
SOU 64%X 22%POR 14%

What does the market say?

SouthamptonDrawPortsmouthRinvalo64%22%14%
Market60%23%18%

✓ Agree · both back Southampton

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 160 rating points.
  • Southampton take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.0
Over 2.564%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.56X22%4.58214%7.03
Double chance
1X86%1.17X236%2.771278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.564%1.57Under 2.536%2.76BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: Portsmouth1-0 probability 7.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Southampton – Portsmouth11 October 20261-0
Portsmouth – Southampton25 January 20261-1
Southampton – Portsmouth14 September 20250-0