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Eredivisie · Matchday 34Sunday 23 May · 13:30 · Spartastadion
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Fortuna Sittard6th place
SPA 48%X 26%FOR 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sparta Rotterdam 0.3, Fortuna Sittard -1.3.
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Over 2.557%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Sparta Rotterdam win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.07X26%3.88226%3.84
Double chance
1X74%1.35X252%1.931274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.31BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam · Columns: Fortuna Sittard1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

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Head to head

Fortuna Sittard – Sparta Rotterdam7 February 20262-2
Sparta Rotterdam – Fortuna Sittard22 November 20251-1
Fortuna Sittard – Sparta Rotterdam29 March 20250-3
Sparta Rotterdam – Fortuna Sittard28 September 20241-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Fortuna Sittard30 March 20244-0
Fortuna Sittard – Sparta Rotterdam13 January 20240-2