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Championship · Matchday 35Wednesday 3 March · 19:45 · bet365 Stadium
Stoke City7th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Southampton2nd place
STK 22%X 26%SOU 52%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 175 rating points.
  • Southampton take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.7
Over 2.552%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.45X26%3.89252%1.93
Double chance
1X48%2.07X278%1.291274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.08BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Stoke City · Columns: Southampton1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Southampton – Stoke City22 August 20263-1
Stoke City – Southampton31 January 20260-2
Southampton – Stoke City23 August 20251-2
Southampton – Stoke City27 April 20240-1
Stoke City – Southampton3 October 20230-1