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Ligue 1 · Matchday 20Saturday 13 February · 16:00 · Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Monaco7th place
TFC 42%X 27%MON 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.5, Monaco -0.1.
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Monaco score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.3
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Toulouse win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.38X27%3.64231%3.28
Double chance
1X69%1.44X258%1.731273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.90Under 2.547%2.11BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.32

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Toulouse · Columns: Monaco1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →
MonacoWDLDL

Head to head

Monaco – Toulouse10 October 20262-2
Toulouse – Monaco25 April 20262-2
Monaco – Toulouse25 October 20251-0
Toulouse – Monaco7 March 20251-1
Monaco – Toulouse7 December 20242-0
Monaco – Toulouse18 February 20241-2