TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 45Saturday 24 April · 15:00 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Birmingham City6th place
WAT 24%X 26%BIR 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Birmingham City lead by 172 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Watford 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Watford -0.9.
  • If Watford score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.6
Over 2.547%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Birmingham City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.21X26%3.78250%2.01
Double chance
1X50%1.99X276%1.311274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.547%2.14Under 2.553%1.88BTTS yes50%1.98BTTS no50%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Birmingham City1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Watford – Birmingham City1 January 20263-0
Birmingham City – Watford1 December 20252-1
Birmingham City – Watford16 March 20240-1
Watford – Birmingham City16 September 20232-0
Watford – Birmingham City14 March 20233-0
Birmingham City – Watford16 August 20221-1