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Championship · Matchday 9Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Full time0-4Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✓ Result correct
Burnley22nd place
WAT 33%X 29%BUR 38%

What does the market say?

WatfordDrawBurnleyRinvalo33%29%38%
Market31%27%42%

✓ Agree · both back Burnley

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Burnley lead by 155 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Burnley -0.3, Watford -0.9.
  • If Watford score first, they win 65% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.3
Over 2.543%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Burnley win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.05X29%3.46238%2.61
Double chance
1X62%1.62X267%1.491271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.543%2.31Under 2.557%1.76BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Burnley0-4 probability 0.9% · final score

Form

Compare →
WatfordLLWLL
BurnleyWDLLD

Head to head

Watford – Burnley10 October 20260-4
Watford – Burnley18 April 20251-2
Burnley – Watford21 December 20242-1
Burnley – Watford14 February 20231-1
Watford – Burnley12 August 20221-0
Watford – Burnley30 April 20221-2