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Championship · Matchday 15Saturday 7 November · 15:00 · Vicarage Road
Watford21st place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Middlesbrough1st place
WAT 15%X 22%MID 63%

What's at stake

WatfordRelegation35%46%49%
MiddlesbroughTitle57%50%46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 238 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Watford -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Watford 0.6.
  • If Watford score first, they win 43% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 84% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals0.9 – 2.0
Over 2.554%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
115%6.51X22%4.55263%1.60
Double chance
1X37%2.68X285%1.181278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.19BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Watford · Columns: Middlesbrough0-2 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Middlesbrough – Watford25 April 20265-1
Watford – Middlesbrough1 November 20253-0
Middlesbrough – Watford15 February 20250-1
Watford – Middlesbrough5 October 20242-1
Middlesbrough – Watford4 May 20243-1
Watford – Middlesbrough30 September 20232-3